MIRI’s July 2013 Workshop

Mihaly at April workshop

From July 8-14, MIRI will host its 3rd Workshop on Logic, Probability, and Reflection. The focus of this workshop will be the Löbian obstacle to self-modifying systems.

Participants confirmed so far include:

If you have a strong mathematics background and might like to attend this workshop, it’s not too late to apply! And even if this workshop doesn’t fit your schedule, please do apply, so that we can notify you of other workshops (long before they are announced publicly).

Information on past workshops:

New Research Page and Two New Articles

research page

Our new Research page has launched!

Our previous research page was a simple list of articles, but the new page describes the purpose of our research, explains four categories of research to which we contribute, and highlights the papers we think are most important to read.

We’ve also released drafts of two new research articles.

Tiling Agents for Self-Modifying AI, and the Löbian Obstacle (discuss it here), by Yudkowsky and Herreshoff, explains one of the key open problems in MIRI’s research agenda:

We model self-modification in AI by introducing “tiling” agents whose decision systems will approve the construction of highly similar agents, creating a repeating pattern (including similarity of the offspring’s goals). Constructing a formalism in the most straightforward way produces a Gödelian difficulty, the “Löbian obstacle.” By technical methods we demonstrates the possibility of avoiding this obstacle, but the underlying puzzles of rational coherence are thus only partially addressed. We extend the formalism to partially unknown deterministic environments, and show a very crude extension to probabilistic environments and expected utility; but the problem of finding a fundamental decision criterion for self-modifying probabilistic agents remains open.

Robust Cooperation in the Prisoner’s Dilemma: Program Equilibrium via Provability Logic (discuss it here), by LaVictoire et al., explains some progress in program equilibrium made by MIRI research associate Patrick LaVictoire and several others during MIRI’s April 2013 workshop:

Rational agents defect on the one-shot prisoner’s dilemma even though mutual cooperation would yield higher utility for both agents. Moshe Tennenholtz showed that if each program is allowed to pass its playing strategy to all other players, some programs can then cooperate on the one-shot prisoner’s dilemma. Program equilibria is Tennenholtz’s term for Nash equilibria in a context where programs can pass their playing strategies to the other players.

One weakness of this approach so far has been that any two programs which make different choices cannot “recognize” each other for mutual cooperation, even if they are functionally identical. In this paper, provability logic is used to enable a more flexible and secure form of mutual cooperation.

Participants of MIRI’s April workshop also made progress on Christiano’s probabilistic logic (an attack on the Löbian obstacle), but that work is not yet ready to be released.

We’ve also revamped the Get Involved page, which now includes an application form for forthcoming workshops. If you might like to work with MIRI on some of its open research problems sometime in the next 18 months, please apply! Likewise, if you know someone who might enjoy attending such a workshop, please encourage them to apply.

Friendly AI Research as Effective Altruism

MIRI was founded in 2000 on the premise that creating1 Friendly AI might be a particularly efficient way to do as much good as possible.

Some developments since then include:

  • The field of “effective altruism” — trying not just to do good but to do as much good as possible2 — has seen more publicity and better research than ever before, in particular through the work of GiveWell, the Center for Effective Altruism, the philosopher Peter Singer, and the community at Less Wrong.3
  • In his recent PhD dissertation, Nick Beckstead has clarified the assumptions behind the claim that shaping the far future (e.g. via Friendly AI) is overwhelmingly important.
  • Due to research performed by MIRI, the Future of Humanity Institute (FHI), and others, our strategic situation with regard to machine superintelligence is more clearly understood, and FHI’s Nick Bostrom has organized much of this work in a forthcoming book.4
  • MIRI’s Eliezer Yudkowsky has begun to describe in more detail which open research problems constitute “Friendly AI research,” in his view.

Given these developments, we are in a better position than ever before to assess the value of Friendly AI research as effective altruism.

Still, this is a difficult question. It is challenging enough to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of anti-malaria nets or direct cash transfers. Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of attempts to shape the far future (e.g. via Friendly AI) is even more difficult than that. Hence, this short post sketches an argument that can be given in favor of Friendly AI research as effective altruism, to enable future discussion, and is not intended as a thorough analysis.

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MIRI May Newsletter: Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics and Other Publications

Greetings From the Executive Director

Dear friends,

It’s been a busy month!

Mostly, we’ve been busy publishing things. As you’ll see below, Singularity Hypotheses has now been published, and it includes four chapters by MIRI researchers or research associates. We’ve also published two new technical reports — one on decision theory and another on intelligence explosion microeconomics — and several new blog posts analyzing various issues relating to the future of AI. Finally, we added four older articles to the research page, including Ideal Advisor Theories and Personal CEV (2012).

In our April newsletter we spoke about our April 11th party in San Francisco, celebrating our relaunch as the Machine Intelligence Research Institute and our transition to mathematical research. Additional photos from that event are now available as a Facebook photo album. We’ve also uploaded a video from the event, in which I spend 2 minutes explaining MIRI’s relaunch and some tentative results from the April workshop. After that, visiting researcher Qiaochu Yuan spends 4 minutes explaining one of MIRI’s core research questions: the Löbian obstacle to self-modifying systems.

Some of the research from our April workshop will be published in June, so if you’d like to read about those results right away, you might like to subscribe to our blog.

Cheers!

Luke Muehlhauser

Executive Director

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New Transcript: Yudkowsky and Aaronson

Yudkowsky-Aaronson

In When Will AI Be Created?, I referred to a bloggingheads.tv conversation between Eliezer Yudkowsky and Scott Aaronson. A transcript of that dialogue is now available, thanks to MIRI volunteers Ethan Dickinson, Daniel Kokotajlo, and Rick Schwall.

See also the transcript for a bloggingheads.tv conversation between Eliezer Yudkowsky and Massimo Pigliucci.

To join these volunteers in assisting our cause, visit MIRIvolunteers.org!

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