In When Will AI Be Created?, I named four methods that might improve our forecasts of AI and other important technologies. Two of these methods were explicit quantification and leveraging aggregation, as exemplified by IARPA’s ACE program, which aims to...
Four older articles have been added to our research page. The first is the early draft of Christiano et al.’s “Definability of ‘Truth’ in Probabilistic Logic” previously discussed here and here. The draft was last updated on April 2, 2013....
