MIRI has released a new technical report by Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Distributions allowing tiling of staged subjective EU maximizers,” which summarizes some work done at MIRI’s May 2014 workshop.
We consider expected utility maximizers making a staged series of sequential choices, and replacing themselves with successors on each time-step (to represent self-modification). We wanted to find conditions under which we could show that a staged expected utility maximizer would replace itself with another staged EU maximizer (representing stability of this decision criterion under self-modification). We analyzed one candidate condition and found that the “Optimizer’s Curse” implied that maximization at each stage was not actually optimal. To avoid this, we generated an extremely artificial function η that should allow expected utility maximizers to tile. We’re still looking for the exact necessary and sufficient condition.