Recently, MIRI received a targeted donation to improve the AI Impacts website initially created by frequent MIRI collaborator Paul Christiano and part-time MIRI researcher Katja Grace. Collaborating with Paul and Katja, we ported the old content to a more robust and navigable platform, and made some improvements to the content. You can see the result at AIImpacts.org.
As explained in the site’s introductory blog post,
AI Impacts is premised on two ideas (at least!):
- The details of the arrival of human-level artificial intelligence matter
Seven years to prepare is very different from seventy years to prepare. A weeklong transition is very different from a decade-long transition. Brain emulations require different preparations than do synthetic AI minds. Etc.
- Available data and reasoning can substantially educate our guesses about these details
We can track progress in AI subfields. We can estimate the hardware represented by the human brain. We can detect the effect of additional labor on software progress. Etc.
Our goal is to assemble relevant evidence and considerations, and to synthesize reasonable views on questions such as when AI will surpass human-level capabilities, how rapid development will be at that point, what advance notice we might expect, and what kinds of AI are likely to reach human-level capabilities first.
The meat of the website is in its articles. Here are two examples to start with: