In When Will AI Be Created?, I named four methods that might improve our forecasts of AI and other important technologies. Two of these methods were explicit quantification and leveraging aggregation, as exemplified by IARPA’s ACE program, which aims to “dramatically enhance the accuracy, precision, and timeliness of… forecasts for a broad range of event types, through the development of advanced techniques that elicit, weight, and combine the judgments of many… analysts.”
GMU’s DAGGRE program, one of five teams participating in ACE, recently announced a transition from geopolitical forecasting to science & technology forecasting:
DAGGRE will continue, but it will transition from geo-political forecasting to science and technology (S&T) forecasting to better use its combinatorial capabilities. We will have a brand new shiny, friendly and informative interface co-designed by Inkling Markets, opportunities for you to provide your own forecasting questions and more!
Another exciting development is that our S&T forecasting prediction market will be open to everyone in the world who is at least eighteen years of age. We’re going global!
If you want to help improve humanity’s ability to forecast important technological developments like AI, please register for DAGGRE’s new S&T prediction website here.
I did.
