MIRI’s January 2014 Newsletter

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Machine Intelligence Research Institute

Dear friends,Wow! MIRI’s donors finished our Winter 2013 fundraising drive three weeks early. Our sincere thanks to everyone who contributed.

Research Updates

Other Updates

Other Links

As always, please don’t hesitate to let us know if you have any questions or comments.

Best,
Luke Muehlhauser
Executive Director

MIRI strategy conversation with Steinhardt, Karnofsky, and Amodei

 |   |  Conversations, MIRI Strategy

On October 27th, 2013, MIRI met with three additional members of the effective altruism community to discuss MIRI’s organizational strategy. The participants were:

We recorded and transcribed much of the conversation, and then edited and paraphrased the transcript for clarity, conciseness, and to protect the privacy of some content. The resulting edited transcript is available in full here (62 pages).

Our conversation located some disagreements between the participants; these disagreements are summarized below. This summary is not meant to present arguments with all their force, but rather to serve as a guide to the reader for locating more information about these disagreements. For each point, a page number has been provided for the approximate start of that topic of discussion in the transcript, along with a phrase that can be searched for in the text. In all cases, the participants would likely have quite a bit more to say on the topic if engaged in a discussion on that specific point.

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Kathleen Fisher on High-Assurance Systems

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Kathleen Fisher portraitDr. Kathleen Fisher joined DARPA as a program manager in 2011. Her research and development interests relate to programming languages and high assurance systems. Dr. Fisher joined DARPA from Tufts University. Previously, she worked as a Principal Member of the technical staff at AT&T Labs. Dr. Fisher received her Doctor of Philosophy in computer science and her Bachelor of Science in math and computational science from Stanford University.

Luke Muehlhauser: Kathleen, you’re the program manager at DARPA for HACMS program, which aims to construct cyber-physical systems which satisfy “appropriate safety and security properties” using a “clean-slate, formal methods-based approach.” My first question is similar to one I asked Greg Morrisett about the SAFE program, which aims for a “clean slate design for resilient and secure systems”: In the case of HACMS, why was it so important to take the “clean slate” approach, and design the system from the ground up for safety and security (along with functional correctness)?


Kathleen Fisher: Researchers have been trying to prove programs correct for decades, with very little success until recently (successful examples include NICTA’s seL4 microKernel and INRIA’s compCert verifying C compiler). One of the lessons learned in this process is that verifying existing code is much harder than verifying code written with verification in mind.

There are a couple of reasons for this. First, many of the invariants that have to hold for a program to be correct often exist only in the head of the programmer. When trying to verify a program after the fact, these invariants have been lost and can take a very long time for the verifier to rediscover. Second, sometimes the code can be written in multiple ways, some of which are much easier to verify than others. If programmers know they have to verify the code, they’ll choose the way that is easy to verify.

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Donor Story #1: Noticing Inferential Distance

 |   |  Guest Posts

2013 was by far MIRI’s most successful fundraising year (more details later), so now we’re talking to our donors to figure out: “Okay, what exactly are we doing so right?”

Below is one donor’s story, anonymized and published with permission:

My decision to donate was heavily dependent upon MIRI’s relationship with LessWrong. I did look into MIRI itself, perused the blog and the papers, and did some fact-checking. But this was largely sanity-checking after I had been convinced to donate by my interactions on LessWrong.

Initially, I wasn’t so much convinced to donate as I was convinced that FAI is a more pressing problem than my prior concerns. Once I believed this, it wasn’t a question of whether I was going to donate to FAI research but a question of where to focus my efforts.

I chose to donate to MIRI after it became apparent to me that

  1. Few people are aware of the problems posed by uFAI.
  2. Among those who are, many dismiss the problem after failing to understand it.

This perhaps sounds arrogant. Allow me to explain some:

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7 New Technical Reports, and a New Paper

 |   |  Papers

Recently, MIRI released 7 brief technical reports that explain several pieces of theoretical progress made at our December 2013 research workshop. Several of these results build on work done at our July and November 2013 workshops, and also on between-workshop research by Paul Christiano, Benja Fallenstein, and others.

To understand these technical reports in context, and to discuss them, please see Benja Fallenstein’s post: Results from MIRI’s December workshop. See also two posts about the workshop by workshop participant John Baez.

The 7 technical reports are:

Also, Nik Weaver attended the first day of the workshop, and gave a tutorial on his response paper to Yudkowsky & Herreshoff’s tiling agents paper, titled “Paradoxes of rational agency and formal systems that verify their own soundness.” Benja Fallenstein’s comments on Weaver’s idea of “naturalistic trust” are here: Naturalistic trust among AIs.

Winter 2013 Fundraiser Completed!

 |   |  News

Wow! MIRI’s donors just finished our 2013 winter matching challenge three weeks ahead of the deadline!

As it happens, the person who finished this drive was Patrick LaVictoire, who says his donation was the product of his altruism tip jar habit.

I did not expect to finish the fundraiser so quickly. Basically, this happened because the 3:1 matching for “new large donors” worked even better than we hoped: this fundraiser brought forth ten “new large donors,” an uncommonly high number.

For those who were wondering whether they should contribute to MIRI or to its child organization CFAR, the answer is now clear: please contribute to CFAR’s ongoing fundraiser.

Many, many thanks to everyone who contributed!

Josef Urban on Machine Learning and Automated Reasoning

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Josef Urban portrait Josef Urban is a postdoctoral researcher at the Institute for Computing and Information Sciences of the Radboud University in Nijmegen, the Netherlands. His main interest is development of combined inductive and deductive AI methods over large formal (fully semantically specified) knowledge bases, such as large corpora of formally stated mathematical definitions, theorems and proofs. This involves deductive AI fields such as Automated Theorem Proving (ATP) and inductive AI fields such as Machine Learning. In 2003, he made the largest corpus of formal mathematics – the Mizar library – available to ATP and AI methods, and since then has been developing the first approaches, systems and benchmarks for AI and automated reasoning over such corpora. His Machine Learner for Automated Reasoning (MaLARea) has in 2013 solved by a large margin most problems in the mathematically oriented Large Theory division of the CADE Automated Systems Competition (CASC). The system is based on several positive-feedback loops between deducing new proofs and learning how to guide the reasoning process based on successful proofs. Such AI methods are also being deployed as systems that assist interactive theorem proving and formal verification in systems like Mizar, Isabelle and HOL Light.

He received his PhD in Computers Science from the Charles University in Prague in 2004, and MSc in Mathematics at the same university in 1998. In 2003, he co-founded the Prague Automated Reasoning Group, and from 2006 to 2008 he was a Marie-Curie fellow at the University of Miami.

Luke Muehlhauser: In Urban & Vyskocil (2013) and other articles, you write about the state of the art in both the formalization of mathematics and automated theorem proving. Before I ask about machine learning in this context, could you quickly sum up for us what we can and can’t do at this stage, when it comes to automated theorem proving?


Josef Urban: The best-known result is the proof of the Robbins conjecture found automatically by Bill McCune’s system EQP in 1996. Automated theorem proving (ATP) can be used today for solving some open equational algebraic problems, for example in the quasigroup and loop theory. Proofs of such open problems may be thousands of inferences long, and quite different from the proofs that mathematicians produce. Solving such problems with ATP is often not a “push-button” matter. It may require specific problem reformulation (usually involving only a few axioms) suitable for ATP, exploration of suitable parameters for the ATP search, and sometimes also guiding the final proof attempt by lemmas (“hints”) that were useful for solving simpler related problems.

ATP is today also used for proving small lemmas in large formal libraries developed with interactive theorem provers (ITPs) such as Mizar, Isabelle and HOL Light. This is called “large-theory” ATP. In the past ten years, we have found that even with the large mathematical libraries (thousands of definitions and theorems) available in these ITPs, it is often possible to automatically select the relevant previous knowledge from such libraries and find proofs of small lemmas automatically without any manual pre-processing. Such proofs are usually much shorter than the long proofs of the equational algebraic problems, but even that already helps a lot to the people who use ITPs to formally prove more advanced theorems.

An illustrative example is the Flyspeck (“Formal Proof of Kepler”) project led by Tom Hales, who proved the Kepler conjecture in 1998. The proof is so involved that the only way how to ensure its correctness is formal verification with an ITP. Tom Hales has recently written a 300-page book about the proof, with the remarkable property that most of the concepts, lemmas and proofs have a computer-understandable “Flyspeck” counterpart that is stated and verified in HOL Light. Hales estimates that this has taken about 20 man-years. Recently, we have shown that the proofs of about 47% of the 14000 small Flyspeck lemmas could be found automatically by large-theory ATP methods. This means that the only required mental effort is to formally state these lemmas in HOL Light. Again, the caveat is that the lemmas have to be quite easy to prove from other lemmas that are already in the library. On the other hand, this means that once we have such large corpus of formally-stated everyday mathematics, it is possible to use the corpus together with the large-theory ATP methods to solve many simple formally-stated mathematical problems.

Another interesting recent development are ATP methods that efficiently combine “reasoning” and “computing”. This has been a long-time challenge for ATP systems, particularly when used for software and hardware verification. Recent SMT (Satisfiability Modulo Theories) systems such as Z3 integrate a number of decision procedures, typically about linear and nonlinear arithmetics, bitvectors, etc. I am not an expert in this area, but I get the impression that the growing strength of such systems is making the full formal verification of complex hardware and software systems more and more realistic.

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2013 in Review: Operations

 |   |  MIRI Strategy

It’s been 8 months since our big strategic shift to a focus on Friendly AI research. What has worked well? What hasn’t? What have we learned? In this and several upcoming posts, I’ll provide a qualitative and personal self-review of MIRI in 2013.

This review will be mostly qualitative because we haven’t yet found quantitative metrics that do a decent job of tracking what we actually care about (see below). The review will be personal because MIRI staff have a variety of perspectives, so I will usually be speaking for myself rather than for the organization as a whole.

I’ll split my review into six posts: operations (this post), outreach, strategic and expository research, Friendly AI research, fundraising, and our mid-2014 strategic plan.

 

Operations in 2013

  1. 2013 was a big year for capacity-building at MIRI — not so much by hiring more people but by doing more with the people we have.
  2. That said, this progress cost lots of executive time, and I should have been more aggressive about finding ways to accomplish this with fewer executive hours.
  3. As a result of (2), we did not make as much progress on metrics and systematic experimentation as I would have liked to make in 2013.

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