Thanks to the effort of our donors, the 2012 Summer Singularity Challenge has been met! All $150,000 contributed will be matched dollar for dollar by our matching backers, raising a total of $300,000 to fund the Machine Intelligence Research Institute’€™s operations. We reached our goal near 6pm on July 29th.

On behalf of our staff, volunteers, and entire community, I want to personally thank everyone who donated. Your dollars make the difference.

Here’€™s to a better future for the human species.

Thanks to the generosity of several major donors,^† every donation to the Machine Intelligence Research Institute made now until July 31, 2012 will be matched dollar-for-dollar, up to a total of $150,000!

Donate Now!

Now is your chance to double your impact while helping us raise up to $300,000 to help fund our research program and stage the upcoming Singularity Summit… which you can register for now!

Note: If you prefer to support rationality training, you are welcome to earmark your donations for “CFAR” (Center for Applied Rationality). Donations earmarked for CFAR will only be used for CFAR, and donations not earmarked for CFAR will only be used for Singularity research and outreach.

Since we published our strategic plan in August 2011, we have achieved most of the near-term goals outlined therein. Here are just a few examples:

• We outlined the open research problems related to our work (Section 1.1).
• We recruited several more research associates and about a dozen remote researchers (Section 1.2e).
• We held our annual Singularity Summit and gained corporate sponsors for it (Section 2.1).
• We made progress in decision theory (example) via LessWrong.com and our research associates (Section 2.2b).
• We published How to Run a Successful Less Wrong Meetup Group (Section 2.2d).
• We released pre-prints of several forthcoming research articles, including How Hard is Artificial Intelligence?, Intelligence Explosion: Evidence and Import, and The Singularity and Machine Ethics (Section 2.3).
• We redesigned our primary website (Section 2.6).
• We acquired $40,000/month in free Google Adwords advertising, to drive traffic to websites operated by the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (Section 2.6c).
• We began publishing monthly progress reports (Section 2.9b).
• We built up the Center for Applied Rationality such that it should be able to spin off from the Machine Intelligence Research Institute later this year (Section 3.1).
• We created a transparency section on our website, where visitors can find our IRS 990 forms, and also several standard organizational policies, e.g. a conflict of interest policy, non-discrimination policy, etc (Section 3.2).

In the coming year, the Machine Intelligence Research Institute plans to do the following:

• Hold our annual Singularity Summit, this year in San Francisco!
• Spin off the Center for Applied Rationality as a separate organization focused on rationality training, so that the Machine Intelligence Research Institute can be focused more exclusively on Singularity research and outreach.
• Publish additional research on AI risk and Friendly AI.
• Eliezer will write an “Open Problems in Friendly AI” sequence for Less Wrong. (For news on his rationality books, see here.)
• Finish Facing the Singularity and publish ebook versions of Facing the Singularity and The Sequences, 2006-2009.
• And much more! For details on what we might do with additional funding, see How to Purchase AI Risk Reduction.

If you’re planning to earmark your donation to CFAR (Center for Applied Rationality), here’s a preview of what CFAR plans to do in the next year:

• Develop additional lessons teaching the most important and useful parts of rationality. CFAR has already developed and tested over 18 hours of lessons so far, including classes on how to evaluate evidence using Bayesianism, how to make more accurate predictions, how to be more efficient using economics, how to use thought experiments to better understand your own motivations, and much more.
• Run immersive rationality retreats to teach from our curriculum and to connect aspiring rationalists with each other. CFAR ran pilot retreats in May and June. Participants in the May retreat called it “transformative” and “astonishing,” and the average response on the survey question, “Are you glad you came? (1-10)” was a 9.4. (We don’t have the June data yet, but people were similarly enthusiastic about that one.)
• Run SPARC, a camp on the advanced math of rationality for mathematically gifted high school students. CFAR has a stellar first-year class for SPARC 2012; most students admitted to the program placed in the top 50 on the USA Math Olympiad (or performed equivalently in a similar contest).
• Collect longitudinal data on the effects of rationality training, to improve our curriculum and to generate promising hypotheses to test and publish, in collaboration with other researchers. CFAR has already launched a one-year randomized controlled study tracking reasoning ability and various metrics of life success, using participants in our June minicamp and a control group.
• Develop apps and games about rationality, with the dual goals of (a) helping aspiring rationalists practice essential skills, and (b) making rationality fun and intriguing to a much wider audience. CFAR has two apps in beta testing: one training players to update their own beliefs the right amount after hearing other people’s beliefs, and another training players to calibrate their level of confidence in their own beliefs. CFAR is working with a developer on several more games training people to avoid cognitive biases.
• And more!

We appreciate your support for our high-impact work! Donate now, and seize a better than usual chance to move our work forward. Credit card transactions are securely processed using either PayPal or Google Checkout. If you have questions about donating, please contact Louie Helm at (510) 717-1477 or louie@intelligence.org.

† $150,000 of total matching funds has been provided by Jaan Tallinn, Tomer Kagan, Alexei Andreev, and Brandon Reinhart.

Past progress reports: April 2012, March 2012, February 2012, January 2012, December 2011.

Here’s what the Machine Intelligence Research Institute did in May 2012:

• How to Purchase AI Risk Reduction: Luke wrote a series of posts on how to purchase AI risk reduction, with cost estimates for many specific projects. Some projects are currently in place at SI; others can be launched if we are able to raise sufficient funding.
• Research articles: Luke continued to work with about a dozen collaborators on several developing research articles, including “Responses to Catastrophic AGI Risk,” mentioned here.
• Other writings: Kaj Sotala, with help from Luke and many others, published How to Run a Successful Less Wrong Meetup Group. Carl published several articles: (1) Utilitarianism, contractualism, and self-sacrifice, (2) Philosophers vs. economists on discounting, (3) Economic growth: more costly disasters, better prevention, and (4) What to eat during impact winter? Eliezer wrote Avoid Motivated Cognition. Luke posted part 2 of his dialogue with Ben Goertzel about AGI.
• Ongoing long-term projects: Amy continued to work on Singularity Summit 2012. Michael continued to work on the Machine Intelligence Research Institute’s new primary website, new annual report, and new newsletter design. Louie and SI’s new executive assistant Ioven Fables are hard at work on organizational development and transparency (some of which will be apparent when the new website launches).
• Center for Applied Rationality (CFAR): The CFAR team continued to make progress toward spinning off this rationality-centric organization, in keeping with SI’s strategic plan. We also held the first summer minicamp, which surpassed our expectations and was very positively received. (More details on this will be compiled later.)
• Meetings with advisors, supporters, and potential researchers: As usual, various SI staff met or spoke with dozens of advisors, supporters, and collaborators about how to build the existential risk community, how to mitigate AI risk, how to improve the Machine Intelligence Research Institute’s effectiveness, and other topics.
• And of course much more than is listed here!

Finally, we’d like to recognize our most active volunteers in May 2012: Matthew Fallshaw, Gerard McCusker, Frank Adamek, David Althaus, Tim Oertel, and Casey Pfluger. Thanks everyone! (And, our apologies if we forgot to name you!)

Past progress reports: March 2012, February 2012, January 2012, December 2011.

Here’s what the Machine Intelligence Research Institute did in April 2012:

• SPARC: Several MIRI staff members are working in collaboration with SI research associate Paul Christiano and a few others to develop a rationality camp for high school students with exceptional mathematical ability (SPARC). This is related to our efforts to spin off a new rationality-focused organization, and it is also a major step forward in our efforts to locate elite young math talent that may be useful in our research efforts.
• Research articles: Luke published AI Risk Bibliography 2012. He is currently developing nearly a dozen other papers with a variety of co-authors. New SI research associate Kaj Sotala has two papers forthcoming in the International Journal of Machine Consciousness: Advantages of Artificial Intelligences, Uploads, and Digital Minds and Coalescing Minds: Brain Uploading-Related Group Mind Scenarios.
• Other articles: Luke published a dialogue with AGI researcher Pei Wang and several more posts in the AI Risk and Opportunity series. Luke also worked with Kaj Sotala to develop an instructional booklet for Less Wrong meetup group organizers, which is nearly complete.
• Ongoing long-term projects: Amy continued to work on Singularity Summit 2012. Michael launched the new Singularity Summit website, continued to work on the Machine Intelligence Research Institute’s new primary website, new annual report, and new newsletter design. Luke uploaded several more volunteer-prepared translations of Facing the Singularity. Luke also continued to build the Machine Intelligence Research Institute’s set of remote collaborators, who are hard at work converting the Machine Intelligence Research Institute’s research articles to a new template, hunting down predictions of AI, writing literature summaries on heuristics and biases, and more.
• Center for Applied Rationality (CFAR): “Rationality Group” now has a final name: the Center for Applied Rationality (CFAR). The CFAR team has been hard at work preparing for the upcoming rationality minicamps, as well as continuing to develop the overall strategy for the emerging organization.
• Meetings with advisors, supporters, and potential researchers: As usual, various SI staff met or spoke with dozens of advisors, supporters, and collaborators about how to build the existential risk community, how to mitigate AI risk, how to improve the Machine Intelligence Research Institute’s effectiveness, and other topics. Quixey co-founder and CEO Liron Shapira was added as an advisor.
• And of course much more than is listed here!

Finally, we’d like to recognize our most active volunteers in April 2012: Matthew Fallshaw, Gerard McCusker, Frank Adamek, David Althaus, Tim Oertel, Casey Pfluger, Paul Gentemann, and John Maxwell. Thanks everyone! (And, our apologies if we forgot to name you!)

Past progress reports: February 2012, January 2012, December 2011.

Fun fact of the day: The Machine Intelligence Research Institute’s research fellows and research associates have more peer-reviewed publications forthcoming in 2012 than they had published in all past years combined.

Here’s what the Machine Intelligence Research Institute did in March 2012:

• Research articles: Luke and Anna released an updated draft of Intelligence Explosion: Evidence and Import, and Luke and Louie released an updated draft of The Singularity and Machine Ethics. Luke submitted an article (co-authored with Nick Bostrom) to Communications of the ACM — an article on Friendly AI. Machine Intelligence Research Institute research associate Joshua Fox released two forthcoming articles co-authored with (past Machine Intelligence Research Institute Visiting Fellow) Roman Yampolskiy: Safety Engineering for Artificial General Intelligence and Artificial General Intelligence and the Human Mental Model.
• Other articles: Luke published The AI Problem, with Solutions, How to Fix Science, Muehlhauser-Goertzel Dialogue Part 1, a list of journals that may publish articles on AI risk, and the first three posts in his series AI Risk and Opportunity: A Strategic Analysis. The Machine Intelligence Research Institute paid (past Visiting Fellow) Kaj Sotala to write most of a new instructional booklet for Less Wrong meetup group organizers, which should be published in the next month or two. Eliezer continued work on his new Bayes’ Theorem tutorial and other writing projects. Carl published Using degrees of freedom to change the past for fun and profit and Are pain and pleasure equally energy efficient?
• Ongoing long-term projects: Amy continued to work on Singularity Summit 2012. Michael continued to work on the Machine Intelligence Research Institute’s new primary website, new Summit website, new annual report, and new newsletter design. Louie continued to improve our accounting processes and also handled several legal and tax issues. Luke uploaded several more volunteer-prepared translations of Facing the Singularity. Luke also continued to build the Machine Intelligence Research Institute’s set of remote collaborators, who are hard at work converting the Machine Intelligence Research Institute’s research articles to a new template, hunting down predictions of AI, writing literature summaries on heuristics and biases, and more.
• Rationality Group: Per our strategic plan, we will launch this new “Rationality Group” organization soon, so that the Machine Intelligence Research Institute can focus on its efforts on activities related to AI risk. In March, Rationality Group (led by Anna) contracted with Julia Galef and Michael Smith to work toward launching the organization. Eliezer continued to help Rationality Group develop and test its lessons. Rationality Group has begun offering prizes for suggesting exercises for developing rationality skills, starting with the skills of “Be Specific” and “Check Consequentialism.” Rationality Group has also announced three Minicamps on Rationality and Awesomeness, for May 11-13, June 22-24, and July 21-28. Apply now.
• Meetings with advisors, supporters, and potential researchers: As usual, various SI staff met or spoke with dozens of advisors, supporters, and collaborators about how to build the existential risk community, how to mitigate AI risk, how to improve the Machine Intelligence Research Institute’s effectiveness, and other topics. This included a two-week visit by Nick Beckstead, who worked with us on AI risk reduction strategy.
• And of course much more than is listed here!

Finally, we’d like to recognize our most active volunteers in March 2012: Matthew Fallshaw, Gerard McCusker, Frank Adamek, and David Althaus. Thanks everyone! (And, our apologies if we forgot to name you!)

Past progress reports: January 2012, December 2011.

Here’s what the Machine Intelligence Research Institute did in February 2012:

• Winter fundraiser completed: Thanks to the generous contributions of our supporters, our latest winter fundraiser was a success, raising much more than our target of $100,000!
• Research articles: Luke and Anna published the Singularity Summit 2011 Workshop Report and released a draft of their article Intelligence Explosion: Evidence and Import, forthcoming in Springer’s The Singularity Hypothesis. Luke also worked on an article forthcoming in Communications of the ACM.
• Other articles: Luke published a continuously updated list of Forthcoming and desired articles on AI risk. For Less Wrong, Carl published Feed the Spinoff Heuristic, and Luke published My Algorithm for Beating Procrastination, A brief tutorial on preferences in AI, and Get Curious. Carl also published 4 articles on ethical careers for the 80,000 Hours blog (later posts will discuss optimal philanthropy and existential risks): How hard is it to become the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?, Entrepreneurship: a game of poker, not roulette, Software engineering: Britain vs. Silicon Valley, and 5 ways to be misled by salary rankings.
• Ongoing long-term projects: Amy continued to work on Singularity Summit 2012. Michael continued to work on the Machine Intelligence Research Institute’s new website, and uploaded all past Singularity Summit videos to YouTube. Louie continued to improve our accounting processes and also handled several legal and tax issues. Luke uploaded several volunteer-prepared translations of Facing the Singularity, and also a podcast for this online mini-book.
• Grant awarded: The Machine Intelligence Research Institute awarded philosopher Rachael Briggs a $20,000 grant to write a paper on Eliezer Yudkowsky’s timeless decision theory. Two of Rachael’s papers — Distorted Reflection and Decision-Theoretic Paradoxes as Voting Paradoxes — have previously been selected as among the 10 best philosophy papers of the year by The Philosopher’s Annual.
• Rationality Group: Anna and Eliezer continued to lead the development of a new rationality education organization, temporarily called “Rationality Group.” Per our strategic plan, we will launch this new organization soon, so that the Machine Intelligence Research Institute can focus on its efforts on activities related to AI risk. In February our Rationality Group team worked on curriculum development with several potential long-term hires, developed several rationality lessons which they tested (weekly) on small groups and iterated in response to feedback, spoke to advisors about how to build the organization and gather fundraising, and much more. The team also produced one example rationality lesson on sunk costs, including a presentation and exercise booklets. Note that Rationality Group is currently hiring curriculum developers, a remote executive assistant, and others, so apply here if you’re interested!
• Meetings with advisors, supporters, and potential researchers: As usual, various SI staff met or spoke with dozens of advisors, supporters, and collaborators about how to build the existential risk community, how to mitigate AI risk, how to improve the Machine Intelligence Research Institute’s effectiveness, and other topics. We also met with several potential researchers to gauge their interest and abilities. Carl spent two weeks in Oxford visiting the Future of Humanity Institute and working with the researchers there.
• Outsourcing: On Louie’s (sound) advice, the Machine Intelligence Research Institute is undergoing a labor transition such that most of the work we do (in hours) will eventually be performed not by our core staff but by (mostly remote) hourly contractors and volunteers, for example remote researchers, remote LaTeX workers, remote editors, and remote assistants. This shift provides numerous benefits, including (1) involving the broader community more directly in our work, (2) providing jobs for aspiring rationalists, and (3) freeing up our core staff to do the things that, due to accumulated rare expertise, only they can do.
• And of course much more than is listed here!

Finally, we’d like to recognize our most active volunteers in February 2012: Brian Rabkin, Cameron Taylor, Mitchell Owen, Gerard McCusker, Alex Richard, Andrew Homan, Vincent Vu, Gabriel Sztorc, Paul Gentemann, John Maxwell, and David Althaus. Thanks everyone! (And, our apologies if we forgot to name you!)

Thanks to our dedicated supporters, we met our goal for our 2011-2012 Winter Fundraiser. Thank you!

The fundraiser ran for 56 days, from December 27, 2011 to February 20, 2012.

We exceeded our $100K goal, raising a total of $143,048.84 from 101 individual donors.

Every donation that the Machine Intelligence Research Institute receives is powerful support for our mission — ensuring that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence (superintelligence) benefits human society. We welcome donors contacting us to learn more about our pursuit of this mission and our continued expansion.

Keep your eye on this blog for regular progress reports from our executive director.

Past progress report: December 2011.

Here’s what the Machine Intelligence Research Institute did in January 2012:

• Winter fundraiser: We continued raising funds in January, but we still have about $30,000 left to go in our winter fundraiser before the deadline of February 20th. Please support our recent efforts toward greater transparency, efficiency, and productivity by donating now!
• Strategic discussions: In January we held a long and ongoing series of discussions concerning Machine Intelligence Research Institute strategy. Which scenarios are the most probable “desirable” futures for humanity, which ones can our species influence most significantly, and which ones should the Machine Intelligence Research Institute work to influence? Which tactical moves should the Machine Intelligence Research Institute make right now? How can our efforts best create synergies with other organizations focused on existential risks? These are complex questions, and in January, Machine Intelligence Research Institute staff members spent dozens of hours sharing their own evidence and arguments. (At one point, we also called upon the expertise of more than a dozen elite mathematicians in our circle.) These discussions continue today, and our opinions on strategy appear to be more unified than they were at the beginning of the month. But there is more evidence to gather and more strategic analysis to be done.
• Ongoing long-term projects: Amy continued her preparations for Singularity Summit 2012. Michael Anissimov and others continued work on the Machine Intelligence Research Institute’s new website, which will feature loads of new content and a cleaner design. As part of our transparency efforts, Luke gave a second Q&A about the Machine Intelligence Research Institute, an interview at 80,000 Hours, and another interview at Singularity 1 on 1. Louie continued to work on improving our book-keeping and accounting practices. Anissimov finished thanking all donors who gave during 2011. (If you donated in 2011 and were not thanked, please contact michael@singularity.org!)
• Articles: Luke and Anna continued writing “Intelligence Explosion: Evidence and Import,” and Carl continued working with Stuart Armstrong of FHI on “Arms Races and Intelligence Explosions.” Luke began adding non-English translations at Facing the Singularity, and published No God to Save Us and Value is Complex and Fragile there. Carl, with co-author Nick Bostrom, submitted a final version of “How Hard is Artificial Intelligence?” to the Journal of Consciousness Studies. For Less Wrong, Luke published What Curiosity Looks Like, Can the Chain Still Hold You?, Leveling Up in Rationality, and The Human’s Hidden Utility Function (Maybe); Anna published Urges vs. Goals. Eliezer continued work on his new Bayes Tutorial. Luke and Anna wrote a report on the workshops that followed Singularity Summit 2011, which should be published soon.
• Rationality Group: Anna continued to lead the development of a new rationality education organization, temporarily called “Rationality Group.” Per our strategic plan, we will launch this new organization soon, so that the Machine Intelligence Research Institute can focus on its efforts on activities related to AI risk. In January we made one trial-hire for the new organization, and reached out to dozens of other potential team members. We also published a draft of one rationality lesson as a sample (PowerPoint slides + booklet PDFs).
• New team members: Kevin Fischer of GK International joined our board of directors. We also added several new research associates: Paul Christiano, Tyrrell McAllister, János Kramar, and Mihaly Barasz (at Google Switzerland). Luke hired an executive assistant, Denise Simard. Michael Vassar officially left his role as President to work for his new company, Personalized Medicine.
• Meetings with advisors, supporters, and potential researchers: As usual, various SI staff met or spoke with dozens of advisors, supporters, and collaborators about how to build the existential risk community, how to mitigate AI risk, how to improve the Machine Intelligence Research Institute’s effectiveness, and other topics. We also met with several potential researchers to gauge their interest and abilities.
• Relaunched the Visiting Fellows program: In January we relaunched our Visiting Fellows program. Instead of hosting many visiting fellows at once, we will now host only 1-2 fellows at a time, for a limited duration unique to each visiting fellow. Our visiting fellow for the last week of January was Princeton philosophy undergraduate Jake Nebel. If you’re interested, please apply to our Visiting Fellows program here.
• Much more: Launched a redesign of HPMoR.com, continued work in the optimal philanthropy movement, continued work on our first annual report, and much more.

Finally, we’d like to recognize our most active volunteers in January 2012: Mitchell Owen, Brian Rabkin, Huon Wilson, David Althaus, Florent Berthet, Sergio Terrero, “Lightwave,” Emile Kroeger, and Giles Edkins. Thanks everyone! (And, our apologies if we forgot to name you!)