Josef Urban on Machine Learning and Automated Reasoning

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Josef Urban portrait Josef Urban is a postdoctoral researcher at the Institute for Computing and Information Sciences of the Radboud University in Nijmegen, the Netherlands. His main interest is development of combined inductive and deductive AI methods over large formal (fully semantically specified) knowledge bases, such as large corpora of formally stated mathematical definitions, theorems and proofs. This involves deductive AI fields such as Automated Theorem Proving (ATP) and inductive AI fields such as Machine Learning. In 2003, he made the largest corpus of formal mathematics – the Mizar library – available to ATP and AI methods, and since then has been developing the first approaches, systems and benchmarks for AI and automated reasoning over such corpora. His Machine Learner for Automated Reasoning (MaLARea) has in 2013 solved by a large margin most problems in the mathematically oriented Large Theory division of the CADE Automated Systems Competition (CASC). The system is based on several positive-feedback loops between deducing new proofs and learning how to guide the reasoning process based on successful proofs. Such AI methods are also being deployed as systems that assist interactive theorem proving and formal verification in systems like Mizar, Isabelle and HOL Light.

He received his PhD in Computers Science from the Charles University in Prague in 2004, and MSc in Mathematics at the same university in 1998. In 2003, he co-founded the Prague Automated Reasoning Group, and from 2006 to 2008 he was a Marie-Curie fellow at the University of Miami.

Luke Muehlhauser: In Urban & Vyskocil (2013) and other articles, you write about the state of the art in both the formalization of mathematics and automated theorem proving. Before I ask about machine learning in this context, could you quickly sum up for us what we can and can’t do at this stage, when it comes to automated theorem proving?


Josef Urban: The best-known result is the proof of the Robbins conjecture found automatically by Bill McCune’s system EQP in 1996. Automated theorem proving (ATP) can be used today for solving some open equational algebraic problems, for example in the quasigroup and loop theory. Proofs of such open problems may be thousands of inferences long, and quite different from the proofs that mathematicians produce. Solving such problems with ATP is often not a “push-button” matter. It may require specific problem reformulation (usually involving only a few axioms) suitable for ATP, exploration of suitable parameters for the ATP search, and sometimes also guiding the final proof attempt by lemmas (“hints”) that were useful for solving simpler related problems.

ATP is today also used for proving small lemmas in large formal libraries developed with interactive theorem provers (ITPs) such as Mizar, Isabelle and HOL Light. This is called “large-theory” ATP. In the past ten years, we have found that even with the large mathematical libraries (thousands of definitions and theorems) available in these ITPs, it is often possible to automatically select the relevant previous knowledge from such libraries and find proofs of small lemmas automatically without any manual pre-processing. Such proofs are usually much shorter than the long proofs of the equational algebraic problems, but even that already helps a lot to the people who use ITPs to formally prove more advanced theorems.

An illustrative example is the Flyspeck (“Formal Proof of Kepler”) project led by Tom Hales, who proved the Kepler conjecture in 1998. The proof is so involved that the only way how to ensure its correctness is formal verification with an ITP. Tom Hales has recently written a 300-page book about the proof, with the remarkable property that most of the concepts, lemmas and proofs have a computer-understandable “Flyspeck” counterpart that is stated and verified in HOL Light. Hales estimates that this has taken about 20 man-years. Recently, we have shown that the proofs of about 47% of the 14000 small Flyspeck lemmas could be found automatically by large-theory ATP methods. This means that the only required mental effort is to formally state these lemmas in HOL Light. Again, the caveat is that the lemmas have to be quite easy to prove from other lemmas that are already in the library. On the other hand, this means that once we have such large corpus of formally-stated everyday mathematics, it is possible to use the corpus together with the large-theory ATP methods to solve many simple formally-stated mathematical problems.

Another interesting recent development are ATP methods that efficiently combine “reasoning” and “computing”. This has been a long-time challenge for ATP systems, particularly when used for software and hardware verification. Recent SMT (Satisfiability Modulo Theories) systems such as Z3 integrate a number of decision procedures, typically about linear and nonlinear arithmetics, bitvectors, etc. I am not an expert in this area, but I get the impression that the growing strength of such systems is making the full formal verification of complex hardware and software systems more and more realistic.

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2013 in Review: Operations

 |   |  MIRI Strategy

It’s been 8 months since our big strategic shift to a focus on Friendly AI research. What has worked well? What hasn’t? What have we learned? In this and several upcoming posts, I’ll provide a qualitative and personal self-review of MIRI in 2013.

This review will be mostly qualitative because we haven’t yet found quantitative metrics that do a decent job of tracking what we actually care about (see below). The review will be personal because MIRI staff have a variety of perspectives, so I will usually be speaking for myself rather than for the organization as a whole.

I’ll split my review into six posts: operations (this post), outreach, strategic and expository research, Friendly AI research, fundraising, and our mid-2014 strategic plan.

 

Operations in 2013

  1. 2013 was a big year for capacity-building at MIRI — not so much by hiring more people but by doing more with the people we have.
  2. That said, this progress cost lots of executive time, and I should have been more aggressive about finding ways to accomplish this with fewer executive hours.
  3. As a result of (2), we did not make as much progress on metrics and systematic experimentation as I would have liked to make in 2013.

Read more »

New Paper: “Why We Need Friendly AI”

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Think journal pageA new paper by Luke Muehlhauser and Nick Bostrom, “Why We Need Friendly AI,” has been published in the latest issue of the Cambridge journal Think: Philosophy for Everyone.

Abstract:

Humans will not always be the most intelligent agents on Earth, the ones steering the future. What will happen to us when we no longer play that role, and how can we prepare for this transition?

This paper is copyrighted by Cambridge University Press, and is reproduced on MIRI’s website with permission. The paper appears in Volume 13, Issue 36.

MIRI’s December 2013 Newsletter

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Machine Intelligence Research Institute

Dear friends,We’re still experimenting with our new, ultra-brief newsletter style. Please tell us what you think of it, by replying to this email. Thanks!

MIRI’s winter 2013 matching fundraiser is on! All donations made by January 15th will be matched by Peter Thiel, with 3x matching for “new large donors”: if you’ve given less than $5,000 total in the past, and now give or pledge $5,000 or more, your impact will be quadrupled! Reply to this email if you’d like to ask whether you qualify for 3x matching.

Here is a recent snapshot of our fundraising progress so far:


Other News Updates

Research Updates

As always, please don’t hesitate to let us know if you have any questions or comments.

Best,
Luke Muehlhauser
Executive Director

Scott Aaronson on Philosophical Progress

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Scott Aaronson portraitScott Aaronson is an Associate Professor of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at MIT. Before that, he did a PhD in computer science at UC Berkeley, as well as postdocs at the Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton, and the University of Waterloo. His research focuses on the capabilities and limits of quantum computers, and more generally on the connections between computational complexity and physics. Aaronson is known for his blog as well as for founding the Complexity Zoo (an online encyclopedia of complexity classes); he’s also written about quantum computing for Scientific American and the New York Times. His first book, Quantum Computing Since Democritus, was published this year by Cambridge University Press. He’s received the Alan T. Waterman Award, the PECASE Award, and MIT’s Junior Bose Award for Excellence in Teaching.

Luke Muehlhauser: Though you’re best known for your work in theoretical computer science, you’ve also produced some pretty interesting philosophical work, e.g. in Quantum Computing Since Democritus, “Why Philosophers Should Care About Computational Complexity,” and “The Ghost in the Quantum Turing Machine.” You also taught a fall 2011 MIT class on Philosophy and Theoretical Computer Science.

Why are you so interested in philosophy? And what is the social value of philosophy, from your perspective?


Scott Aaronson: I’ve always been reflexively drawn to the biggest, most general questions that it seemed possible to ask. You know, like are we living in a computer simulation? if not, could we upload our consciousnesses into one? are there discrete “pixels” of spacetime? why does it seem impossible to change the past? could there be different laws of physics where 2+2 equaled 5? are there objective facts about morality? what does it mean to be rational? is there an explanation for why I’m alive right now, rather than some other time? What are explanations, anyway? In fact, what really perplexes me is when I meet a smart, inquisitive person—let’s say a mathematician or scientist—who claims NOT to be obsessed with these huge issues! I suspect many MIRI readers might feel drawn to such questions the same way I am, in which case there’s no need to belabor the point.

From my perspective, then, the best way to frame the question is not: “why be interested in philosophy?” Rather it’s: “why be interested in anything else?”

But I think the latter question has an excellent answer. A crucial thing humans learned, starting around Galileo’s time, is that even if you’re interested in the biggest questions, usually the only way to make progress on them is to pick off smaller subquestions: ideally, subquestions that you can attack using math, empirical observation, or both. For again and again, you find that the subquestions aren’t nearly as small as they originally looked! Much like with zooming in to the Mandelbrot set, each subquestion has its own twists and tendrils that could occupy you for a lifetime, and each one gives you a new perspective on the big questions. And best of all, you can actually answer a few of the subquestions, and be the first person to do so: you can permanently move the needle of human knowledge, even if only by a minuscule amount. As I once put it, progress in math and science — think of natural selection, Godel’s and Turing’s theorems, relativity and quantum mechanics — has repeatedly altered the terms of philosophical discussion, as philosophical discussion itself has rarely altered them! (Of course, this is completely leaving aside math and science’s “fringe benefit” of enabling our technological civilization, which is not chickenfeed either.)

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2013 Winter Matching Challenge

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Thanks to Peter Thiel, every donation made to MIRI between now and January 15th, 2014 will be matched dollar-for-dollar!

Also, gifts from “new large donors” will be matched 3x! That is, if you’ve given less than $5k to SIAI/MIRI ever, and you now give or pledge $5k or more, Thiel will donate $3 for every dollar you give or pledge.

We don’t know whether we’ll be able to offer the 3:1 matching ever again, so if you’re capable of giving $5k or more, we encourage you to take advantage of the opportunity while you can. Remember that:

  • If you prefer to give monthly, no problem! If you pledge 6 months of monthly donations, your full 6-month pledge will be the donation amount to be matched. So if you give monthly, you can get 3:1 matching for only $834/mo (or $417/mo if you get matching from your employer).
  • We accept Bitcoin (BTC) and Ripple (XRP), both of which have recently jumped in value. If the market value of your Bitcoin or Ripple is $5k or more on the day you make the donation, this will count for matching.
  • If your employer matches your donations at 1:1 (check here), then you can take advantage of Thiel’s 3:1 matching by giving as little as $2,500 (because it’s $5k after corporate matching).

Please email malo@intelligence.org if you intend on leveraging corporate matching or would like to pledge 6 months of monthly donations, so that we can properly account for your contributions towards the fundraiser.

Thiel’s total match is capped at $250,000. The total amount raised will depend on how many people take advantage of 3:1 matching. We don’t anticipate being able to hit the $250k cap without substantial use of 3:1 matching — so if you haven’t given $5k thus far, please consider giving/pledging $5k or more during this drive. (If you’d like to know the total amount of your past donations to MIRI, just ask malo@intelligence.org.)

$0

$62.5K

$125K

$187.5k

$250k

We have reached our matching total of $250,000!

Now is your chance to double or quadruple your impact in funding our research program.

 

Accomplishments Since Our July 2013 Fundraiser Launched:

How Will Marginal Funds Be Used?

  • Hiring Friendly AI researchers, identified through our workshops, as they become available for full-time work at MIRI.
  • Running more workshops (next one begins Dec. 14th), to make concrete Friendly AI research progress, to introduce new researchers to open problems in Friendly AI, and to identify candidates for MIRI to hire.
  • Describing more open problems in Friendly AI. Our current strategy is for Yudkowsky to explain them as quickly as possible via Facebook discussion, followed by more structured explanations written by others in collaboration with Yudkowsky.
  • Improving humanity’s strategic understanding of what to do about superintelligence. In the coming months this will include (1) additional interviews and analyses on our blog, (2) a reader’s guide for Nick Bostrom’s forthcoming Superintelligence book, and (3) an introductory ebook currently titled Smarter Than Us.

Other projects are still being surveyed for likely cost and impact.

We appreciate your support for our work! Donate now, and seize a better than usual chance to move our work forward. If you have questions about donating, please contact Louie Helm at (510) 717-1477 or louie@intelligence.org.

New Paper: “Predicting AGI: What can we say when we know so little?”

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Predicting AGIMIRI research associate Benja Fallenstein and UC Berkeley student Alex Mennen have released a new working paper titled “Predicting AGI: What can we say when we know so little?

From the introduction:

This analysis does not attempt to predict when AGI will actually be achieved, but instead, to predict when this epistemic state with respect to AGI will change, such that we will have a clear idea of how much further progress is needed before we reach AGI. Metaphorically speaking, instead of predicting when AI takes off, we predict when it will start taxiing to the runway.

The paper argues for a Pareto distribution for “time to taxi,” and concludes:

in general, a Pareto distribution suggests that we should put a much greater emphasis on short-term strategies than a less skewed distribution (e.g. a normal distribution) with the same median would.

New Paper: “Racing to the Precipice”

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Racing to the edgeDuring his time as a MIRI research fellow, Carl Shulman contributed to a paper now available as an FHI technical report: Racing to the Precipice: a Model of Artificial Intelligence Development.

Abstract:

This paper presents a simple model of an AI arms race, where several development teams race to build the first AI. Under the assumption that the first AI will be very powerful and transformative, each team is incentivized to finish first — by skimping on safety precautions if need be. This paper presents the Nash equilibrium of this process, where each team takes the correct amount of safety precautions in the arms race. Having extra development teams and extra enmity between teams can increase the danger of an AI-disaster, especially if risk taking is more important than skill in developing the AI. Surprisingly, information also increases the risks: the more teams know about each others’ capabilities (and about their own), the more the danger increases.

Update: As of July 2015, this paper has been published in the journal AI & Society.